By: WriTerGuy

WriTerGuy — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 04:30:15 +0000

The disconnect between oil prices and the Georgian War is notable, and I have no ready explanation. Of course, the BTC pipeline is already shut down (and will remain so for months) by an explosion in the Turkish segment that officials now say was definitely not sabotage. I think the oil traders see the war as a Russian assertion of power, which once made, everyone will revert back to (nearly) their starting positions. I think also that there is a consensus that $140 a barrel is too high, that the golden goose of the global economy is getting well and truly cooked at that price, and that many suppliers will be able to “settle” for $110 or $100 a barrel. For now.

By: yourstruly

yourstruly — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 23:28:38 +0000

Seems that something unprecedented may be going on now in that that despite this Russo-Georgian War. oil prices are continuing to fall. Considering that over the past year or so whenever there’s any sort of trouble (political or military) in a major oil producing region, oil prices have risen, why is oil down now when a war’s broken out in the world’s 2nd largest oil producing area? Makes one wonder whether all the stuff about supply & demand, speculation and such are nothing but unadulterated gobbledegook. How then to explain falling oil prices in the face of a war in the Black Sea region? Could this have something to do with the big oil doing whatever is necessary to keep the pump price down until after the November election. as per the midterm election two years ago? Why would big oil do this? Maybe it has something to do with Obama’s call for a tax on windfall profits + the public’s growing interest in public transportation and alternative sources of energy. Probably nothing panics big oil more than the possibility that the American people might elect a populist president. Is Barack Obama a populist? If he wins we’ll soon find out.

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